2025年3月13日 Christopher Clayton 经济胁迫与全球碎片化:一个理论框架

【Speaker】Christopher Clayton, Yale University, Assistant Professor

【Topic】A Theory of Economic Coercion and Fragmentation

【Time】Thursday, Mar.13  21:00-22:30

【Location】Zoom      ID:926 3856 621    Password:564748

【Language】English

【Host】Department of Economics, Tsinghua China Data Center,  JRCCE,School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University


【主讲】Christopher Clayton,耶鲁大学,助理教授

【主题经济胁迫与全球碎片化:一个理论框架

【时间】2025年3月13日 21:00-22:30

【地点】Zoom      

【语言】英语

【主办】清华大学经管学院经济系、清华大学中国经济社会数据研究中心


讲座摘要

Hegemonic powers, like the United States and China, exert influence on other countries by threatening the suspension or alteration of financial and trade relationships. Mechanisms that generate gains from integration, such as external economies of scale and specialization, also increase the hegemon’s power because in equilibrium they make other relationships poor substitutes for those with a global hegemon. Other countries can implement economic security policies to shape their economies in order to insulate themselves from undue foreign pressure. Countries considering these policies face a tradeoff between gains from trade and economic security. While an individual country can make itself better off, uncoordinated attempts by multiple countries to limit their dependency on the hegemon via economic security policies lead to inefficient fragmentation of the global financial and trade system. We study financial services as a leading application both as tools of coercion and an industry with strong strategic complementarities. We estimate that U.S. geoeconomic power relies on financial services, while Chinese power relies on manufacturing. Since power is nonlinear and increases disproportionally as the hegemon approaches controlling the entire supply of a sectoral input, we estimate that much economic security could be achieved with little overall fragmentation by diversifying the input sources of key sectors currently controlled by the hegemons.

嘉宾介绍

Christopher Clayton is an Assistant Professor of Finance at Yale School of Management and a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER. He does research in international finance and macroeconomics, finance, and macroeconomics. His research topics include geoeconomics and geopolitics, reserve currency internationalization, multinational banking, financial regulation, and monetary policy. He received a PhD in Economics from Harvard University in 2020.